Dorian - Slideshow of 5-day Cone of Uncertainty Graphs

The attached slideshow {you have to access the article to see it} is an archive of the 5-day Cone of Uncertainty graphs for 2019 Atlantic Dorian from NOAA.

Some may find it interesting.  And, no, Alabama was never in the cone.  However, in the beginning, it did appear as the storm was coming into the Gulf.  However, in reporting, you need to stick to the facts and the model guidance.  Anything else, is just exciting people that are already scared for their wellbeing and property.

Reporting hurricanes is like walking a blade between identifying real danger and useless worry.  The mathematics behind storm reporting is getting better.  But, there is always the human component that desires to get in the way of what science and mathematics is showing you.

Enjoy the slideshow.  May God help those in the wake of the storm.


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Dorian - Tue Sep 3 07:45:58 DST 2019

  • Dorian at a stand still, but weakening, winds now at 120 mph.
  • Devastating the Grand Bahama Islands
  • Movement to the north should resume Tuesday Afternoon

INIT  03/0900Z 26.9N  78.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 27.5N  78.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 28.5N  79.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 29.9N  79.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 31.4N  79.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 34.3N  76.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 39.0N  69.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 46.5N  59.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


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