August 3, 2019, Morning Outlook - Invest 96L

Atlantic Graphical 5-day Forecast

Information from National Hurricane Center - Atlantic indicates Invest 96L, a probably fish storm, has about a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days with less than a 20% chance of development over the next 3 days.

Hurricanes.Jayscafe.net will be watching the storm for development.  Live weather, tidal, solunar data, and reports from the NHC are readily available on the right rail of the page.

While my automated detection and analysis system is down,  I'll try to produce reports on storms manually.  Currently, I'm working on resurrecting my code from a time when my hands worked better.  I have the code safeguarded.  I just need to bring it up to today's standards.

In short, although the storm is distant and forecasting is highly inaccurate, the prevailing information indicates no landfall to mainland America.  Atlantic islands off the east coast of Florida may have issues.

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Barry Update - 8 am, including 7 am info from NOAA

According to the National Hurricane Center from NOAA, Tropical Storm Barry is pushing 70 mile-per-hour winds. This is only 5 mph away from hurricane status category one. The forecast track is essentially the same as the 4 o'clock track, but slightly further west. The path has Barry coming inshore over Pecan Island and into Vermilion Bay.

Most of the feeder bands are inundating Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coasts. There are bands which are trying to wrap around the center of circulation. These bands will affect Patterson, Morgan city, Dulac and other low-lying areas of St. Mary and Terrebonne parishes.

The current water height reported by LUMCON weather stations is approximately 11 feet. The max height was 12 feet above sea level. This institution is outside the Morganza levee protection system. No word about inside the levee system.

Earlier this morning, WWLTV was reporting that the Coast Guard was rescuing 12 people, four of which are elderly, from Isle de Jean Charles. They could not do an air rescue due to excessive winds. I have not heard the current status. Island Road was completely covered with water. This is another area that is outside the levee protection system.

I'm including the usual graphics. The first will be a current radar image of the Southeast Louisiana area. The other images will be from NOAA.

I have set up a charging block for people in my neighborhood to charge their phones and other digital devices. If you have the capability of doing so, then in the spirit of helping your neighbor, this is a very easy thing to do and will provide them the ability to communicate with loved ones.

God bless us all.

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Saturday, 3 am Barry Update - Heading for Marsh Island

Barry is on the move again.  The 7 am CST update will have a new track/strength guidance, but I can tell from my animations that the storm is moving NW towards Marsh Island.  The bulk of the rain remains to the east and south of the storm, with a few feeder bands to the NE.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 08

Looking at the water vapor imagery from NOAA, the vast amount of water and energy flowing into the storm can be seen to encompass most of the western-half of the GOM.  If Barry is able to tap into these resources once on land, it will have a pipeline of rain for days to come.

Below is a beautiful animation of NOAA's GEOCOLOR satellite's images.  What I don't like is that it appears Barry is growing.  More information directly from NOAA near the 4 am hour.

Until then - Thanks for reading!

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